Live Baccarat and Card Counting

Yes, card counting is a technique that can be used in baccarat and most other card games. However, the technique is much harder to pull off than in blackjack, and the results will not be nearly as effective.

To illustrate, we first have to explain how card counting works in the first place.

The main principle behind this card game strategy is to carefully keep track of which cards are being drawn. This gives you information on which cards have been removed from the card shoe for future rounds and which are still in play.

The goal is to spot situations in which the shoe has more cards that favour the player. Players can then leverage this information by increasing their stake or adjusting their strategy.

The first issue with baccarat card counting is that it presumes that some cards are better for achieving certain outcomes. In blackjack, having more 10s and Aces in the shoe gives players an advantage. Sometimes, this advantage is big enough to beat the game’s house edge.

In baccarat, it’s less clear-cut which cards are beneficial to players. For starters, any card can be drawn to either the Player or Banker card pile. This means that ‘beneficial’ cards can benefit both Player and Banker bets. Since these wagers are opposed to each other, it’s hard to say which cards are better and why.

That’s the second major issue with card counting in baccarat. While it’s possible to gather information on which cards are more likely to appear in future rounds, using this information for your benefit is not nearly as easy. After all, players don’t get to make a lot of decisions during a game of baccarat. For instance, the number of cards drawn to each pile is determined by Third Card rules, not the player’s choices.

Of course, these issues haven’t stopped players from finding ways to count cards. However, we should note that most experts claim that even with perfect counting and a lot of luck, it’s extremely difficult to reach even a tiny advantage over the casino. In that regard, blackjack counting is a much more efficient way of beating the house edge.

How Baccarat Card Counting Works

Now that we understand our goals and hurdles, it’s time to look at an actual baccarat card-counting strategy.

Firstly, card counting in baccarat assumes that a shoe full of high cards is better for the Player, while one full of low cards is better for the Banker. If you’re interested in understanding why, we recommend this statistical study by Michael Shackleford, also known as the Wizard of Odds.

As such, our goal is to track the cards and note the approximate state of the rest of the shoe. For example, if more low cards are played, that means that the remaining shoe contains more high cards, and you should bet on the Player. Conversely, if the dealer draws a lot of low-value cards, betting on the Banker is better.

So, how do we actually count cards in baccarat?

No worries, you don’t need to memorize every drawn card. Instead, we’ll assign values to cards based on how high their rank is. We’ll then add and remove these values from our count every time a corresponding card is played. This is often called a Running Count.

Here are the values you’ll need to remember:

• Aces, 2s, 3s, and 4s add +1 to the running count
• 5s, 6s, 7s, and 8s remove -1 from the running count
• 9s and 0-value cards (10s, Jacks, Queens, and Kings) count as 0 and have no effect on the running count.

You should add and remove points from your running count as cards are drawn and discarded from the shoe. Note that the suit of the cards doesn’t matter, and it doesn’t matter whether they were drawn for the Player or the Banker. All that matters is whether the card has been removed from the remaining decks.

Then, you should make the following bets:

• Bet on the Player if the Running Count is -4 or less
• Otherwise, bet on the Banker

The reason we’re betting this way is that Banker bets have a lower house edge at the beginning of a new shoe, according to basic baccarat stats. That means that we should only bet on the Player if our count tells us that the shoe favors Player bets.

Once the Running Count hits -4, the house advantage of Player (1.24 on a fresh card shoe) bets becomes lower than that of Banker bets (1.16 on a fresh shoe.)

Step-by-Step Instructions & Example

We’ll sum things up with a step-by-step guide to counting cards in baccarat.

• Step 1: Wait for a new card shoe and set the Running Count to 0
• Step 1.5: If you’re placing bets at this point, bet on the Banker
• Step 2: Assign a value to cards based on their baccarat value:
  • 1-4: +1
  • 5-7: -1
  • 0, 9: 0
• Step 3: Add or remove points from the Running Count based on which cards are drawn from the deck.
• Step 4: If the Running Count falls below -4, bet on the Player. Otherwise, keep betting on Banker.

As you can see, it’s a fairly easy strategy to understand and use. We’ll clear things up even more by providing an example.

As instructed, let’s say that you’re betting on the Banker in every round. You should immediately start keeping a Running Count based on the instructions we provided.

During the first four rounds of the card shoe, the dealer draws the following cards:

• 2, 5, 8, J = 1 – 1 – 1 + 0 = Running Count at -1
• 9, 3, K, Q, 6 = – 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 – 1 = Running Count at -2
• A, 7, 9, Q = 1 – 1 + 0 + 0 = Running Count at -2
• 8, 5, A, 6, J, 9 = – 1 – 1 + 1 – 1 + 0 + 0 = Running Count at -4

At this point, you should switch to Player because a running count of -4 means that the house advantage on Player bets becomes smaller than the house advantage on Banker bets.

Hi-Lo Card Counting: Does It Apply to Baccarat?

If you’re already familiar with the Hi-Lo card counting system in blackjack, you’ve probably noticed that the strategy we provided above is quite similar. If not, we recommend reading our breakdown of the Hi-Lo counting strategy.

The short answer is that yes, the strategy we described above is comparable to Hi-Lo, and it does work in baccarat, to a degree. The only real difference between Hi-Lo in these two games is that different values are assigned to different cards. Moreover, the Running Count has a vastly different effect on your decisions as a player, which makes sense considering the fundamental differences between blackjack and baccarat.

However, we should also make it clear that most card-counting methods are based on Hi-Lo in one way or another. While the counting method we described is similar to Hi-Lo, the same can be said for pretty much every approach out there.

Moreover, it’s important to note that counting cards is much more effective in blackjack than it is in baccarat. Blackjack allows players a lot more direct control over the gameplay, which means that card-counting techniques can be used to give players an advantage over the casino. On the other hand, baccarat card counting only allows you to reduce the house advantage down to around 0.55% at most. In practical terms, you’ll rarely see this advantage drop below 0.80%.

Hi-Lo in Baccarat: Effect on House Advantage

The table below shows the statistical house advantage of Player and Banker bets depending on the Running Count of the system we described above (which can be reasonably called Hi-Lo.)

We should also note that counts above or below +/- 5 are extremely rare. Although the house advantage can be reduced quite a bit, these situations are too rare to be reliably exploited.

Baccarat Side Bets and Card Counting

Side bets in baccarat typically have different win conditions than the main bets. This can make card counting for these wagers more or less difficult, depending on the bet in question.

Let’s consider some important points about counting for side bets in baccarat and why it can be difficult to do.

Maintaining a count gives you an idea of which cards are left in the shoe, but not when they will be drawn. This means that using a count to predict bets like Player and Banker pair bets is impossible – even if a Pair is more likely than usual, you still don’t know whether the Player or Banker piles will end up drawing it.

Moreover, the main goal of counting baccarat cards is to reduce the house advantage. However, most side bets in this game have very high house edge percentages, typically in the range of 5-15%. Even if you were to maintain a perfect count and get extremely lucky with the card shoe, you would still be unable to actually beat this advantage. In many cases, you would end up with a lower RTP than what you would get from a Player/Banker bet, even if you’re not counting at all.

In short, card counting for baccarat side bets is technically possible, but it’s generally not worth the effort. You can get a higher expected value simply by playing a Banker bet instead.

That said, our research has found a few examples of possible strategies for side bets. The table below will compare some of the most common ones. It also highlights why counting for some bets, such as Either Pair, is possible but not worth it.

The Dragon 7 Side Bet in EZ Baccarat

One of the few examples of countable side bets is the Dragon 7 wager in EZ Baccarat. This strategy was developed by mathematician Eliot Jacobson and shared on his website.

EZ Baccarat is a special variant of the game in which Banker bets don’t have the usual 5% commission, but Push if they win with 3 cards and a hand score of 7. Currently, you can play it online as Ezugi’s EZ Baccarat.

EZ Baccarat also offers a side bet called the Dragon 7. This wager wins if the above conditions are met – if the Banker side wins with three cards totalling 7, paying 40:1.

This strategy relies on the fact that removing 8s and 9s from the deck substantially increases the probability of the Dragon 7 winning. Conversely, you want the deck to be stacked with as many 7s as possible. You also want low cards to stay in the shoe to increase the likelihood of the Banker drawing 3 cards.

To count for the Dragon 7 side bet, assign your Running Count values as follows:

• 4s, 5s, 6s, 7s: -1
• 8s, 9s: +2
• All other cards: 0

Maintain a Running Count as you would with any other card-counting strategy – by adding and removing the values as cards are dealt.

If your Running Count reaches +4, you should make the Dragon 7 bet. According to Jacobson, this will give you a player advantage of 8.03% over the house, which is quite impressive.

The Lucky 6 Side Bet

The Lucky 6 side bet is another common wager offered by some no-commission tables. This bet wins if the Banker wins with a hand total of 6, with a very high base house advantage of over 11%.

However, it’s also one of the few provably countable side wagers in baccarat.

To count cards for the Lucky 6 side bet, use the same method we described above, but assign the following values to cards:

• 6s: -3
• 7s, 8s, 9s: +1
• All other cards: 0

You should only make the Lucky 6 side bet with a running count of +7 or higher. This should give you an advantage of around 6.3%.

However, it should be noted that hitting a running count of +7 with this method is extremely unlikely, as it happens in 3% of all card shoes. That’s why counting the Lucky 6 wager is possible, but requires a lot of time and patience.

Best Baccarat Card Counting Strategies: Is There One?

There are several other common baccarat card-counting strategies that you’ll easily be able to find online. They typically only differ in terms of values assigned to cards and how the Running Count affects your strategy:

• Ed Thorp’s Strategy – Virtually identical to the Hi-Lo system. However, it subtracts -1 for 2s and 3s, -2 for 4s and 5s, adds +1 for 6s and 7s, and adds +2 for 7s and 8s. The idea is to bet on the Player on a True Count of +4 or more. Though it’s more complicated than a Hi-Lo, it only slightly increases the player’s advantage.
• Wizard’s Level 3 Strategy – Introduced by the Wizard of Odds, this strategy uses a much more complicated system of card values. Cards can range from -4 to +6 based on their importance. However, this strategy can only ensure a 0.007% smaller house advantage than the Hi-Lo, which is why it’s arguably not worth the effort.

The table below compares all of the baccarat card counting systems we’ve talked about and compares their effectiveness, complexity, and applicability.

Note that the ‘Attainable House Advantage’ is an approximation of what you can expect to achieve in a typical round of baccarat. While it’s possible to lower the house advantage further, instances of such high or low Running Counts are extremely rare.

As you can see, the trusty Hi-Lo is by far the easiest system to learn and feasibly use. While it can only reduce the casino’s advantage, it’s applicable to pretty much any standard Baccarat table out there. More complex systems for main bet counting can offer a better advantage, but they’re typically not worth the extra effort.

The side bet counts are the only ones that actually have a chance of beating the house edge. However, these side bets are hard to find in actual casinos. Moreover, the actual probability of hitting a card shoe that can offer this advantage is extremely low, which severely limits real-life applications.